From 1980 to 2023, records show that in Seoul the probability of snow on Christmas Eve is about 27.9%, on Christmas Day 7.0%, and when combining both days, the chance of experiencing a White Christmas rises to 34.9%.
When Did Korea Experience a White Christmas?
Many of us remember childhood Christmases with snow, but actual data reveals that White Christmases have been relatively rare. This post analyzes snowfall records in Seoul from the 1980s through 2023, focusing on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.
📊 Snowfall Records by Decade
| Decade | Snow on Christmas Eve | Snow on Christmas Day | Snow on Eve or Day | Probability (Eve) | Probability (Day) | Probability (Eve or Day) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1980s | 2 times (1981, 1985) | 0 times | 2 times | 20% | 0% | 20% |
| 1990s | 1 time (1990) | 1 time (1990) | 1 time | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| 2000s | 3 times (2000, 2002, 2009) | 0 times | 3 times | 30% | 0% | 30% |
| 2010s | 5 times (2010, 2012, 2013, 2017, 2018) | 1 time (2015) | 6 times | 50% | 10% | 60% |
| 2020s (2020–2023) | 3 times (2020, 2022, 2023) | 1 time (2023) | 3 times | 75% | 25% | 75% |
| Overall (1980–2023) | 12 times | 3 times | 15 times | 27.9% | 7.0% | 34.9% |
Key Findings
- 1980s: Snow only on Christmas Eve (20%).
- 1990s: Snow occurred only in 1990 (10%).
- 2000s: Snow on Christmas Eve three times (30%).
- 2010s: Highest frequency, with Eve probability 50%, Day 10%, combined 60%.
- 2020s (2020–2023): Short period but very high Eve probability (75%).
Conclusion
Across 43 years of data, the chance of snow on Christmas Day is relatively low at 7.0%, but Christmas Eve shows a higher probability of 27.9%. When combining both, the likelihood of experiencing a White Christmas in Seoul is 34.9%.
This means that while a snowy Christmas Day is rare, the overall chance of enjoying a White Christmas is higher than many might expect. For 2024, snowfall on Christmas Day may be unlikely, but a snowy holiday season remains a real possibility.
This analysis shows that the romantic idea of a White Christmas is less common than childhood memories suggest. Yet, recent decades have seen more snowy Christmases, giving us hope for another festive and magical holiday season.
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